Measuring the Medical Marijuana Market in Missouri - Early Estimate Goes Up In Smoke
Call it the battle of weed vs. tweed.
The contest pitted Missouri’s medical marijuana industry against academics (famous for woolen sports jackets with elbow patches) at the University of Missouri-Columbia. And, as it turned out, the pot people beat the pencil-necks in predicting the bumper crop of patients certified to participate in Missouri’s new medical marijuana program.
It all began in November 2018, when voters overwhelmingly made Missouri the 33rd state, plus the District of Columbia, to legalize medical marijuana. Sixty-six percent of those who turned out voted in favor of the constitutional amendment, often referred to as Amendment 2, which is how it appeared on the ballot.
After the vote, the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services (DHSS) asked a team headed by MU economics professor Joe Haslag to estimate the size of the potential market. Put simply, the MU team whiffed badly (with one caveat) in the report it issued in the spring.
It now appears that, according to some estimates, the state could be on track to issue approximately 70,000 medical I.D. cards in the program’s first year — nearly four times the number predicted by the Haslag study. Optimistic observers predict the Missouri program could even hit 150,000 patients by the third year.
Shot in the Dark
So, how did the abacus-clickers get it so wrong?
Haslag argued that his team was hampered by a lack of solid figures gathered by medical-marijuana states. (Twelve of those jurisdictions have gone on to approve recreational pot.)
“I was surprised at the paucity of the data,” Haslag said.
Researchers found that data from 19 states was sufficient enough to estimate the number of card holders in the first three years in Missouri, with a high-end calculation of 26,404 by 2022.
Haslag ultimately relied heavily on four states that the report said had the most complete data: Washington, Arizona, Massachusetts and Colorado.
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